NVIDIA Takes Over One-Third Share in non-iPad Tablets in Q1

Apple continues to lead in the tablet apps processor market and held 61 percent unit share in Q1 2011. In non-iPad tablets, NVIDIA topped with 34.4 percent unit volume share in Q1 2011, thanks to NVIDIA's first-mover advantage with the dual-core Cortex-A9 processors and Honeycomb Android design-wins, says Sravan Kundojjala, analyst on Strategy Analytics’ Handset Component Technologies (HCT) programme. 
Provisionally they estimate that NVIDIA's tablet apps processor share increased to 48.6 percent in Q2 2011 with the Tegra 2 processor in multiple tablets from tier-one vendors including the Motorola Xoom, Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1 and 8.9, Dell Streak 7, LG Optimus Pad 3D, Acer Iconia Tab 500 and Asus Eee Pad Transformer. NVIDIA is expected to maintain this momentum with its upcoming Kal-El quad-core processor.
They estimate that x86 processors accounted for less than 5 percent of total tablet apps processors shipped in Q1 2011. Intel is expected to support Android tablets from later this year which could potentially improve the x86-based processor share in tablets.
Stand-alone apps processors accounted for 93.5 percent of total tablet apps processors shipped in Q1 2011 and they continue to believe stand-alone apps processors will dominate the tablet market in the near-to-medium term given the business model and pricing issues surrounding Wi-Fi-only versus 3G / 4G connectivity integrated tablets. Qualcomm's upcoming LTE Snapdragon processor MSM8960 could potentially increase integrated processors' share in tablets.
“The non-iPad camp is still waiting for a blockbuster product and we believe most tablet apps processor suppliers' fortunes are now tied up with this to see further growth," said Stuart Robinson, Director of Strategy Analytics’ Handset Component Technologies (HCT) programme."We expect Amazon's rumoured tablet and Microsoft's Windows 8 platform will be catalysts for further tablet apps processor vendors dynamics.”

Smartphones to double to be the majority of cellphone shipments by 2015

Shipments of smartphones will rise to account for more than half of the worldwide cellphone market by 2015 according to a new IHS iSuppli Mobile Handset Market Tracker report.
Global smartphone unit shipments will soar to 1.03 billion units in 2015, more than double the 478 million in 2011. This will cause smartphones’ share of global cellphone shipments to increase to 54.4 percent in 2015, up from 32.5 percent in 2011. This rise to dominance is all the more remarkable considering that smartphones accounted for only 15.8 percent of the total cellphone market in 2009.
Within the smartphone market, the fastest-growing category will be low-end models, defined as devices with limited features and lower memory densities relative to higher-end products. Shipments of low-end smartphones are expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate of 115.4 percent during the period from 2010 through 2015, compared to just 16.4 percent for mid-range to high-end smart phones.
“With their affordable prices, low-end smart phones are attractive to first-time users and to consumers in emerging economies where subscriber levels are rising at the fastest rates of all regions of the world, such as China, India, South Asia and Africa,” said Francis Sideco, senior principal analyst, wireless communications for IHS. “Low-end smart phones often are sold with inexpensive tiered data plans that target consumers who do not yet need full-featured services. This further reduces these phones’ total cost of ownership, making them attractive to vast numbers of entry-level consumers.”
The rapid expansion of low-end sales already is impacting the market share of various players in the smartphone space.
Samsung posted the strongest growth of all companies in the market with a 600 percent sequential increase in shipments. This industry-leading performance was driven by its line of low-end smart phones that appeal to consumers in China and Latin America.
Cellphone sellers like Samsung are now able to offer lower-priced smartphones because of the availability of inexpensive single-chip 3G baseband solutions and license-free open operating systems.

Apps driving growth
In addition to low-end models, the rise of the smartphone segment is being amplified by the growth of mobile apps development.
“Success in the mobile phone industry is no longer purely a function of hardware capabilities,” Sideco said. “Growth for all players is being determined by a number of other important factors, such as software capabilities, the sleekness and intuitiveness of the user interface and the availability of a variety of applications.”
Key drivers of success will be strong support from the developer community, and how well smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) can make their hardware and software work together to create the best user experience.

Related articles

• Smart Phones, Smart Phones which is the smartest choice? (tanjententerprises.wordpress.com)
• IHS iSuppli: Tablets to push 2011 mobile broadband shipments up 58% (venturebeat.com)
• Dip in Mobile Shipments to Western Europe Causes Concern (nytimes.com)
• Worldwide Smartphone Market Expected to Grow 55% in 2011 and Approach Shipments of One Billion in 2015, According to IDC (huguesrey.wordpress.com)
• Samsung announces new low-cost smartphones, targets emerging markets (digitaltrends.com)
• iSuppli: Tablet shipment forecast spikes thanks to Apple (zdnet.com)
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LTE to Reach 4 Percent of US Handset Sales in 2011

By Nick Flaherty www.flaherty.co.uk

Surprising results from market researcher Strategy Analytics show that LTE technology will account for 4 percent of mobile handset sales in the United States during 2011. Major players driving the emerging LTE market this year will include Samsung, Android and Verizon Wireless.

“We forecast LTE technology to account for 4 percent of mobile handset sales in the United States during 2011, rising from near-zero in 2010," said Tom Kang, Director at Strategy Analytics. "LTE is fast becoming a high-growth, high-value 4G market for handset vendors, component manufacturers and operators.”

Neil Mawston, Director at Strategy Analytics, added, “The United States is already the world’s most important market for LTE handsets and services. Key players driving US LTE growth this year will include Samsung, HTC, LG, Android, Verizon Wireless and AT&T. Emerging players that could shake up the LTE market over the next year include Apple, Amazon or even Nintendo.”

Strategy Analytics predicts LTE hit 100m units in the US by 2014, while HSUPA sales will grow at an above-average rate of 42% annually through the next 5 years. China, India and the USA will be the world's three largest markets (for phones generally) by 2015.

The full report, Global Handset Sales Forecast by Country, is published by the Strategy Analytics Wireless Device Strategies (WDS) service.

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The rise of the 2+ tablet household

My partner uses my iPad!

By Nick Flaherty www.flaherty.co.uk

Nearly a fifth (17%) of Apple iPad owners state that there is more than one tablet in their household, either owned by themselves or another family member, according to a study by online market researchers YouGov
The main reason for owning more than one tablet in the household is due to other family members using the tablet. Over a third (37%) of Apple iPad owners state that their partners use their iPad. Though the user friendly nature of the device may be influencing people to purchase the iPad, it appears that this feature is also attracting other members of the family to the device. Our TabletTrack research reveals that 14% of Apple iPad users purchased another tablet because their child was using it.
Whilst 17% of tablet owners currently own another device, almost a further fifth of all tablet owners (19%) are considering purchasing another tablet in the future. Of those existing owners, loyalty is high, with most users stating they will get the same device that they currently use, 71% of Apple iPad owners surveyed will get another iPad. However, the lure of newer tablets being released in the future may also drive an increase in the 2+ tablet households with 18% of Apple iPad owners stating that they will purchase other tablets that become available in the future.
Tablets are attractive pieces of hardware and they attract people to them. Recommendation and buzz is strong and this drives multi-tablet households where utility levels are high.

LTE connections to reach 300million by 2015

LTE to account for 4% of world's mobile connections within five years, says Wireless Intelligence

By Nick Flaherty

LTE networks will account for 4 percent of the world's mobile connections within five years, according to a new report by Wireless Intelligence. The new study, Global LTE network forecasts and assumptions 2010-2015, predicts that global LTE connections will surpass the 1 million mark in the first half of 2011 and will reach 300 million by 2015 as the world's mobile operators ramp-up rollout of the next-generation network technology.

The study forecasts that Asia Pacific will be the world's largest LTE region by 2015, contributing almost half (43 percent) of global LTE connections by this point (see Table 1). China – the world's largest mobile market – is expected to account for around half of the Asia Pacific total. However, LTE network migration will initially be driven by operators in Western Europe and North America, which account for a combined 70 percent of global LTE connections in 2010. This is due to early LTE network rollouts by operators such as TeliaSonera (Europe) and Verizon Wireless (USA). Asia Pacific is expected to become the largest LTE market as migration gathers pace in major markets such as China, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea. The Americas and Africa are expected to be the two regions slowest to migrate to LTE, collectively accounting for just 5 percent of global LTE connections by 2015.

"The introduction of LTE networks reflects the move the telecoms industry is making towards delivering cloud-based and converged services, and an improved user experience," said Joss Gillet, Senior Analyst at Wireless Intelligence and author of the report. "Our latest forecasts show that LTE is being adopted by operators across the globe, but the pace of migration will be faster in countries where mobile broadband is on the political agenda and favourable regulatory developments are taking place – especially with regards to spectrum. However, creating a profitable ecosystem around the new networks will take time and it may take a few years for LTE services to live up to the hype."

The study is based on all known LTE deployments scheduled to take place over the next five years (excluding India). It predicts that 19 live LTE networks will be up-and-running across the globe by year-end 2010. These include major commercial LTE launches due later this month from market-leading operators such as NTT Docomo (Japan), Deutsche Telekom (Germany) and Etisalat (UAE). The world's first commercial LTE networks were launched a year ago by TeliaSonera in Sweden (Stockholm) and Norway (Oslo); TeliaSonera has since rolled-out LTE across its Nordic footprint, including in Finland and Denmark. Wireless Intelligence forecasts that global LTE connections will reach 350,000 by year-end 2010.

"Subscriber uptake of LTE is initially being driven by demand for data-centric mobile broadband services, typically accessed via USB dongles and embedded devices for which operators will charge a premium," said Gillet. "We predict that the introduction of voice over LTE (VoLTE) by around 2012 will mark the 'tipping point' for mass-market LTE handset volume shipments, which will accelerate LTE connections growth. However, premium price points and limited availability means that we will see low LTE handset penetration in the short term."

LTE migration will also be dependent on regulators allocating suitable frequency bands, the study says. It highlights three main spectrum scenarios for the deployment of LTE services; the release of IMT extension spectrum in the 2500-2600MHz bands, the release of 'digital dividend' spectrum in the 700-800MHz bands, and the re-farming of existing spectrum.

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Asia Pacific	27%	32%	43%	40%	41%	43%
W. Europe	34%	22%	22%	28%	26%	24%
USA/Canada	36%	37%	27%	22%	20%	18%
E. Europe	1%	4%	3%	3%	4%	5%
Middle East	2%	4%	5%	6%	6%	5%
Americas	0%	1%	1%	2%	3%	4%
Africa	0%	0%	0%	1%	1%	1%

Table 1: Regional share of LTE connections
Source: 'Global LTE network forecasts & assumptions 2010-2015' Wireless Intelligence (December 2010)

Related articles

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Wireless Charging Market Set to Expand by Factor of Nearly 70 by 2014

By Nick Flaherty www.flaherty.co.uk

Perhaps it is finally time for the wireless charging market to take off after any false starts. Market researchers iSuppli think so, with a flood of electronic products with wireless charging capability arriving on the market in the coming years, causing global shipments of such solutions to soar to 234.9 million units in 2014. That's up by a factor of 65 from 3.6 million in 2010.

The product-specific wireless charging systems consist of a charger as well as a so-called “skin” or receiver sold for specific devices. These contrast with aftermarket solutions, which comprise universal chargers and various skins that can be used with multiple consumer electronics.

“While a number of serious challenges continue to present barriers to immediate wide adoption, wireless chargers will start shipping in meaningful volume this year and then quickly ramp up as the devices achieve greater market acceptance,” said Tina Teng, senior analyst for wireless research at iSuppli. “Over the next five years, wireless charging devices will find their way into an increasing number of applications, including mobile phones, portable media players, digital still cameras and mobile PCs. Among these, mobile phones will contribute the largest share of revenue to wireless charging—not only because of the large volume of mobile devices expected to benefit from the technology, but also because of participation by name brands in manufacturing the device, providing much needed market recognition in the process.”

Growth is also projected for aftermarket wireless charging, with revenue rising at a massive five-year Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 133.4 percent.

Barriers remain to wide adoption

Although wireless charging is poised for growth in 2010 and the years to come, it will take several years for manufacturers to fully implement wireless charging in their devices, iSuppli believes. In particular, manufacturers will need to consider how to integrate wireless charging into the design of printed circuit boards, and significant adoption of wireless charging technology will be needed to drive down costs.

One way to spur adoption by the market is for the wireless charging industry to adopt a common standard that would ensure interoperability among the solutions being developed. At present, all commercial solutions are based on proprietary technology, and the skin made by one company, for example, will not work with the charger pad of another.

“Until the industry finds a standard to follow, the wireless charging industry will be fragmented, and consumers will hesitate to adopt any solution that could be compromised by the rival companies,” Teng said. “However, an open, standardized system will create a healthier competitive environment and prompt manufacturers to join forces—which will enhance consumer awareness and lead to adoption in the markets.”

Participants, technologies, and applications scramble for power

Of the four current wireless charging technologies in place today, magnetic inductive is the most widely adopted by nodes in the value chain.

Based on the principle of electromagnetic induction, in which current generated from the induced magnetic field in the receiver coil is used to charge devices, the technology enjoys wide support from semiconductor vendors, device manufacturers, accessories makers as well as retailers. The most successful proponent of magnetic induction is Powermat, a Michigan-based company founded in 2009 that also owned 62 percent share of the wireless charging market in 2009—the largest slice in the industry.

Other wireless charging technologies include conductive, developed by the company WildCharge and currently licensed to Procter and Gamble’s Duracell; near-field magnetic resistance, championed by wireless telecom giant Qualcomm as well as Intel; and far-field magnetic resonance, a technology that has raised safety as well as health concerns and for which no commercial products are available for the time being.

While most companies are thought not to be ready with any commercial products until sometime this year, several high-profile manufacturers are examining the feasibility of producing wireless charging solutions. The companies include Texas Instruments and ST-Ericsson from the semiconductor side; Nokia  and Research In Motion from the device manufacturer side; and Logitech and Case-Mate from the accessory manufacturer side.

Related article

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iPhone4 teardown shows highly integrated RF front end

Bill of Materials of $187.51 says iSuppli  with breakdown of suppliers

By Nick Flaherty www.flaherty.co.uk

The break down of the iPhone 4 shows that this generation has the same cost of components as previous devices, according to iSuppli’s Teardown Analysis service. The 16Gbyte version of the iPhone 4 carries a BOM of $187.51, based on a preliminary cost estimate derived from a physical teardown of the product.

“Just as it did with the iPad, Apple has thrown away the electronics playbook with the iPhone 4, reaching new heights in terms of industrial design, electronics integration and user interface,” said Kevin Keller, principal analyst, teardown services, for iSuppli. “However, the BOM of the fourth-generation model closely aligns with those of previous iPhones. With the iPhone maintaining its existing pricing, Apple will be able to maintain the prodigious margins that have allowed it to build up a colossal cash reserve—one whose size is exceeded only by Microsoft.”

iSuppli estimated the BOM of the 3GS in 2009 at $170.80; the 3G in 2008 at $166.31 and the first iPhone in 2007 at $217.73.

The attached figure presents the results of iSuppli’s preliminary teardown estimate. Please note that the BOM accounts only for hardware costs and does not include other expenses such as manufacturing, software, marketing, distribution and royalties and licensing fees.

Housing complex

One of the most apparent examples of the iPhone 4’s design innovation is its completely redesigned housing. Unlike the unibody housing of previous models, the iPhone 4’s enclosure is composed of multiple pieces, allowing it to accommodate a considerably larger battery as well as the much-discussed integrated antenna.

“The metal housing of the outer enclosure serves as a physical antenna, a tough task to design and manufacture because antennae pieces have to be insulated from other parts, and yet be rigid around the perimeter,” Keller said. “This adds more complexity and cost, but elegantly uses every possible cubic millimeter of the iPhone for function, and not just form. The tight intertwining of form and function is an area where Apple has always excelled.”

Less is more in wireless

The wireless subsection of the iPhone 4 is far smaller than in previous members of the line because of greatly increased integration of the Radio Frequency (RF) functionality into the core chipset components, despite the presence of an additional air standard: High-Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA), which allows the uploading of bandwidth-intensive HD video.

“Out of the nearly 300 cell phones torn down by iSuppli, the iPhone comes the closest to integrating the entire wireless interface—including all the supporting Radio Frequency (RF) modules—on a single chip,” Keller said. “This further enhances the iPhone 4’s space efficiency and serves as yet another testament to the advanced state of Apple’s design.”

Design winners

The LCD display represents the single most expensive component in the iPhone 4, costing $28.50 and accounting for 15.2 percent of the product’s total BOM. The 3.5-inch display uses advanced Low-Temperature Polysilicon (LTPS) and In-Plane Switching (IPS) technology, and features a 960 by 630 resolution—four times that of the iPhone 3GS.

While the display is not labeled, iSuppli believes the most likely supplier is LG Display. Toshiba Mobile Display (TMD) also could serve as a source for the part.

The next most expensive single component is the NAND-type flash memory. In the 16Gbyte version of the iPhone 4, the NAND costs $27 and accounts for 14.4 percent of the BOM. In the individual iPhone 4 torn down by iSuppli, the NAND flash was supplied by Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., although Apple could be employing other sources as well.

Samsung also supplies the next costliest part, the 4Gbits of mobile Double Data Rate (DDR) SDRAM, priced at $13.80, or 7.4 percent of the BOM.

Following on the value ranking is the baseband Integrated Circuit (IC), at $11.72, or 6.3 percent of the BOM. Infineon Technologies is the supplier of this part, iSuppli’s teardown reveals.

Next on the component cost countdown is the A4 applications processor, manufactured by Samsung but using Apple’s Intellectual Property (IP). iSuppli estimates the cost of the A4 at $10.75, or 5.7 percent of the iPhone 4’s BOM.

Other parts and suppliers

Subsequent on the cost list is the capacitive touch screen with reinforced glass, at $10.00, or 5.3 percent of the BOM. While the supplier of the touch screen is not labeled and thus cannot be determined through a teardown analysis, iSuppli believes the source is TPK and/or Balda.

The main camera on the iPhone, a 5-megapixel autofocus device, costs $9.75, and accounts for 5.2 percent of the BOM. Like the touch screen, the camera cannot be identified from a teardown.

The Wi-Fi Bluetooth controller IC, priced at $7.80 and representing 4.2 percent of the BOM, is supplied by Broadcom.

Other parts in the iPhone 4 include:

·          The $5.80 battery, with an unknown supplier

·          NOR flash, supplied by Intel/Numonyx; and Double Data Rate (DDR) mobile DRAM, provided by Elpida Memory, at a combined cost of $2.70.

·          A $2.60 Microelectromechanical (MEMS) gyroscope, supplied by STMicroelectronics

·          Infineon’s $2.33 quad-band GSM/Edge transceiver

·          The $2.03 main power-management IC from Dialog Semiconductor.

·          A Global Positioning System (GPS) chip from Broadcom, costing $1.75

·          Texas Instruments' touch screen controller IC, at $1.23

·          Cirrus Logic’s $1.15 audio codec

·          An e-compass from AKM Semiconductor Inc., at 70 cents

·          The accelerometer, provided by STMicroelectronics, and costing 65 cents

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Is it worth launching a Mini Smartphone?

Data casts doubt on mini strategy

Some very interesting data has been thrown up by grey market pricing group phoneLot.com. It points to the surge by manufacturers to replicate their flagship smartphones in a Mini version, but is this going to grab market share from competitors or simply half the demand for the original phone? Sony Ericsson have been the latest manufacturer to follow the Nokia N97 mini and the HTC HD mini, by launching their X10 mini. But have they done their homework? Possibly not according to Dan Quinn, Project Manager. “Had Sony Ericsson reviewed gsmExchange’s Price Watch, they would have seen that since its launch, the Nokia N97 mini’s price has nosedived, shedding €70 off the average wholesale price since November 2009, ” he said. While the N97 also decreased in value, the fall has been less severe, limiting to an average wholesale price of €318 from €350 since November 2009.
Quinn described the situation as difficult, pointing out that demand for the N97 mini has consistently been running at 50% of supply on the grey market, even during the run up to the holiday season in December which is traditionally a time of short stock. When compared to the N97, which demand outstripped supply by nearly 25% in the same period. Overall, it is questionable whether this could be considered a success and if these actual statistics were common knowledge, would it have altered Sony Ericsson’s strategy. Since the turn of the year, demand for both Nokia models continues to fall, in April 2010, demand stood at just under 33% of available stock on phoneLot.com for the N97 and about 65% of supply for the N97 Mini although the quantities being traded is considerably less for the mini model.


phoneLot.com is the fastest growing online trading platform for wireless retailers and wholesalers. It is dedicated to offering a purchasing solution to businesses looking to buy between 5 – 200 phones per order. Launched in February 2010, phonelot.com has over 4,000 members using the platform as their primary source for mobile phones and accessories. gsmExchange.com is the world’s leading wholesale trading platform for the mobile phone and accessories industry. Established in 1999, gsmExchange enjoys the status of world No.1 in this niche. There are over 40,000 members on the gsmExchange network and the platform is visited by thousands everyday looking for new customers or suppliers across the world.

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Top 25 LTE Operators Will Reach Over 200 million LTE Subscribers by 2015

LTE infrastructure CAPEX spending to reach $14 billion in 2015
The top 25 LTE (committed) operators will reach a 3G/UMTS subscriber base of 1,087 million, of which 226.7 million will be served with dual mode 3G/LTE devices in 2015 says the latest research from Maravedis in "The Top 25 LTE Operator Commitments: Deployment Scenarios and Growth Opportunities".

70% of the operators interviewed experienced a 2-fold increase in the traffic traversing their mobile networks in 2009, while 84% of mobile operators around the world will be moving from HSPA/HSPA+ in anticipation of their evolution to LTE, and only 16% of operators will move from CDMA/EVDO.
Many operators will deploy LTE as a data network overlay with fall back to 3G network coverage where LTE is not available. So far, only 40% of the operators interviewed are planning and doing trials for voice over LTE. Maravedis expects this figure to increase as operators near LTE rollout and primarily deployed into unused or newly acquired spectrum bands, including 700 MHz, 2.3 GHz and 2.5-2.7 GHz BWA spectrum bands.

• 242,000 accumulated LTE macro base stations will be deployed in 2015, up from 38,906 in 2013.
• Chinese and European carriers will drive the market after 2012
• More than 80% of the top 25 LTE (committed) operators have selected vendors for their LTE trials
• Ericsson, Huawei, and Alcatel-Lucent are the top 3, best positioned vendors for LTE trials and deployment contracts
• Network topology is changing towards smaller cells - 52% of the LTE Committed Operators are planning to deploy eNodeB microcells and picocells
• 57% of operators use just fibre backhaul - 12% use microwave and 31% use a mix of both

DOWNLOAD REPORT BROCHURE

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Market forces will overcome mobile device fragmentation says Analysys Mason

Fragmentation is a major issue for portable multimedia
As the mobile industry catches up with the iPhone, device fragmentation will increasingly become an issue and  the costs and effects of potentially needing to rewrite (and maintain) every application for every device and platform combination will become increasingly noticeable, says Jim Morrish, Principal Analyst at Analysys Mason. This has recently been highlighted by Adobe’s desire to use Flash CS5 to write software once for deployment across multiple mobile platforms, and Apple’s recent actions that effectively prevent Flash-compiled software from being admitted to the App Store.
In the medium term, defragmentation may be driven by developers of more-sophisticated applications, mobile operators, handset manufacturers and the use of browsers as runtime environments, and combating device fragmentation is currently high on many agendas in the mobile industry.
This is in the context of a boom in smartphones worldwide, forecast to grow at an annual rate of 32% between 2010 and 2014, according to a Analysys Mason report, Smartphones forecast to grow to 26% of handsets by 2014.
More than 50% of this growth will be generated in developing Asia–Pacific and Latin American markets. Western European, North American and developed Asia–Pacific markets combined will account for less than 30% of total growth, so it is clear that the market for smartphones will transform over coming years.
This means initiatives to combat the effects of device fragmentation are now moving centre-stage. The GSMA recently announced the Wholesale Application Community, which will take the JIL (browser widget) and BONDI (handset API standardisation) initiatives and develop them into a common standard for widget-based applications. It will also take advantage of the work that the GSMA has already undertaken in developing open network APIs (OneAPI).
Others are taking an alternative approach to the same problem, promoting a ‘write-once, deploy-many-times’ scheme. For instance, Tech Mahindra is working to develop software that will ‘translate’ applications between incompatible OS environments, and Nokia is seeking to exploit the Qt application development environment, which is capable of compiling applications into code suitable for a variety of devices and platforms. Writing a mobile application once and then compiling it into many OS environments (cross-platform compilation) is also something that Adobe is pursuing with Flash CS5, as are Appcelerator with Titanium, Metismo with Bedrock and Nitobi Software with PhoneGap.
Another theme in the battle against device fragmentation is the extension of a ‘smart-like’ environment to non-smart phones. Opera Software is mining this vein, with its server-side widgets that are accessible via a handset web browser client, and shift application processing requirements off the handset and into the network. Another example is Silent Communication, which has written a proprietary software client that it claims will work on the majority of handsets shipped in developed markets during the past two years. The client acts as an abstraction layer, enabling the effective roll-out of standardised applications across a large range of handsets. An example is visual voicemail, which the company soon expects to roll out across the whole range of handsets from a leading manufacturer.
From a developer’s perspective, many of the defragmentation initiatives can simply seem to result in more fragmentation. Apple’s recent stipulation that all App Store applications must be originally written in Objective-C, C, C++ or JavaScript as executed by the iPhone OS WebKit engine – not, for example, in Flash and then compiled – adds further complexity (although cross-platform compilers that use Apple’s SDK may sidestep this restriction).

Moving forwards in a fragmented world It is unclear how this situation will evolve, but fragmentation is certainly here to stay for the foreseeable future and will continue to affect different applications in different ways. For example, it might be easier to port sophisticated games that depend on specific handset capabilities (such as a touchscreen interface) between OS environments for handsets with similar capabilities than it would be to port them within OS environments for handsets with different capabilities. Such an effect may drive some standardisation among high-end smartphones – for example, manufacturers and developers might adopt the latest iPhone capabilities as a lowest common denominator. The reach of sophisticated applications beyond this set of phones would then be determined by a simple business case: the incremental cost of tailoring the application compared with the addressable market per additional handset type, combined with an expected sales-conversion rate.
Many simple applications are relatively untroubled by fragmentation within OSs. For example, Nokia’s Ovi app wizard enables users to construct an RSS newsfeed client in a few minutes, and the resulting application runs on nearly all Nokia devices that support Ovi Store. Other relatively simple applications may simply be developed as browser widgets.
Operators and handset manufacturers are likely to be the driving force behind the development of more-sophisticated applications that are suitable for a large cross-section of devices. Such effects suggest that in the medium-term new dynamics may emerge in the market for mobile content and applications, including:

• a range of high-end handsets (running various OSs, but similar in terms of functionality) that benefit from an extensive and sophisticated developer community, using cross-platform compilation and application translation tools
• a significantly larger group of diverse handsets (not necessarily smartphones) that will have access to a more restricted set of moderately sophisticated applications for which investment by operators or handset manufacturers to overcome device fragmentation is financially viable
• an extensive range of less-sophisticated applications, available via a browser interface across an extensive range of handsets.

Against this framework, the main opportunity for mobile operators will be to drive the creation of high-quality applications that transcend the boundaries of OSs or specific handset types. These applications’ ability to drive customer acquisition and limit churn will provide the justification to do so.

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• 100 Million Club H2 2009: Breaking the 500 million barrier of mobile software (visionmobile.com)
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Shipments of Cell Phone Motion Sensors to Rise Fivefold by 2014

Unit shipments up but ASPs fall

Global shipments of motion sensors for cell phones are expected to quintuple by 2014 as smart phones and their operating systems increasingly support motion command and navigation applications that require these parts, say market researchers iSuppli.
Shipments of cell phone motion sensors — accelerometers, compasses, gyroscopes and pressure sensors — will rise to 2.2 billion units in 2014, up from 435.9 million in 2009. Revenue will amount to slightly more than $1 billion in 2014, up from $316 million in 2009.
Motion sensors such as accelerometers and compasses already play a key role in the functionality of smart phones like the iPhone or Google phones. Accelerometers detect when a phone with a large touch screen has been turned on its side, allowing the device to switch from portrait to landscape view. They also play a key role in gaming and navigation functions, and increasingly in augmented reality and context-awareness applications.
The expanding presence of accelerometers in cell phones also can be seen in the hundreds of Independent Design Houses (IDHs) in China adopting motion sensors in 2009. Nearly 20 percent of the global shipments of accelerometers for cell phones went to China in 2009, iSuppli estimates, with the vast majority used in the Chinese gray handset market.

Accelerometers speed ahead In 2014, accelerometers will account for 44 percent of total motion sensor revenue for cell phones. By that time, 65 percent of all phones will incorporate accelerometers, up from 2 percent in 2007 and 28 percent in 2009.
Falling prices for 3-axis parts will promote the growth of accelerometer sales. Prices for low-end, 6-bit 3-axis accelerometers are set to decline to 34 cents by 2014, down from 90 cents in 2008. The share of higher-end 12-to-14 bit accelerometers will increase because these are essential for more sophisticated hand gesture recognition and navigation applications.

Compasses point up “Shipments of compasses for cell phones exploded in the second half of 2009,” said Jérémie Bouchaud, director and principal analyst, Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) for iSuppli. “In 2009, 19 percent of GPS phones used a compass, up from 4 percent in 2008.”
Compasses support navigation, enabling auto rotation of maps to match the direction a user is facing. Augmented reality applications that combine the compass, GPS signal and camera are also a big driver in Android phones and in the iPhone 3Gs.
“These attributes are so compelling to consumers that competing smart phone platforms, including Google’s Android and Microsoft’s Mobile Windows 7, are promoting or even mandating support for these features. This will cause shipments of compasses for mobile phones to boom during the coming years.”

Gyroscopes spin up Mobile handset makers showed little interest in gyroscopes until early 2009. That changed, however. in mid 2009 following the success of the Nintendo Wii Motion Plus and the advent of a cascade of new gyroscopes with 2 and 3 axes from InvenSense and STMicroelectronics.
Gyroscopes are expected to enter the first smart phones this summer. The main applications in 2010 and 2011 will comprise a user interface utilizing a gyroscope in combination with an accelerometer, followed by image stabilization and dead-reckoning for in-vehicle navigation. From 2012, gyroscopes will start to be used for in-door navigation in combination with an accelerometer, compass and pressure sensor for floor accuracy. By 2014, the market for gyroscopes in cell phones is expected to amount to $190 million.

Semi opportunity With the anticipated upsurge of motion sensor shipments in the years to come, additional opportunities along the supply chain will be created for semiconductor companies, affording participation to the manufacturers of processors, microcontrollers and navigation chipsets, iSuppli believes. At present, new architectures are being explored that can offload the application processor, optimize power consumption at the system level and improve response time.

Related motion sensor articles

• Qualtre raises $8M for motion sensor chips for consumer electronics (games.venturebeat.com)
• iSuppli Ranks InvenSense as Top MEMS Company and Consumer Gyroscope Supplier for 2009 (eon.businesswire.com)
• InvenSense Unveils Next Generation MotionProcessing Solutions for Mobile Handsets at CTIA (prweb.com)
• Augmented Reality on iPhone Applications (slideshare.net)
• Next-Gen Accelerometers Will Have Temperature Sensor Amongst Other Cool Functions [Accelerometers] (gizmodo.com)

iPad turns multimedia design on its head

Shakes up Electronics Supply Chain with 20m units in 2012

As I've said many times in this blog, it's the User-Interface (UI) of the Apple iPad that has a major impact on the electronics supply chain and on how electronic products are designed. 
 

“Electronic products have always been designed the same way, with a motherboard-oriented approach starting with the circuits and semiconductors on a central Printed Circuit Board (PCB)  and then wrapping UI-focused elements like the keyboard and display around it,” said Derek Lidow, president and chief executive officer at maret researchers iSuppli. “The iPad is not designed that way. It doesn’t have a traditional motherboard. Rather, it is designed with the UI as the starting point: Apple started by designing the screen, the touch pad and the battery, and lastly focused on the semiconductors and where to put them. This design is what gives the product a unique feel and functionality.”

Shipments of Apple’s iPad are set to rise to 20.1 million in 2012, up from 7.1 million in 2010. “Anyone that wants to compete with Apple is going to have to consider the design of the iPad, as well as its huge implications on the electronics design and value chain,” said Lidow. “This unleashes an extremely interesting dynamic. The question of which companies in the supply chain will capture the profits from this UI-based approach will be of major importance in the coming years.”

Display and touch screen patent issues

Obvious beneficiaries of the UI-centric design philosophy are the suppliers of the display, touch screen assembly and related electronics. The display module in the iPad, supplied by LG Display, is the single most expensive component in the product. The display employs advanced, wide-viewing-angle LCD technology. The actual technology reportedly is either In-Plane Switching (IPS) technology or Advanced-Fringe Field Switching (AFFS) technology. LG Display holds the patent for IPS, while Hydis Technology Co.—a subsidiary of Prime View International—holds the patent on the AFFS technology. Japan’s Epson is also providing panels, while Samsung Electronics is a potential future supplier.

The next most expensive component is the capacitive touch screen assembly. The supplier of the assembly is Wintek while other makers of such assemblies include Sintek Photronic, TPK Solutions, Touch International and Young Fast Optoelectronics, but none of those companies currently supply to the iPad, iSuppli believes.

On the support electronics side are the touch screen microcontroller and multitouch controller Integrated Circuits (ICs) from Broadcom and the touch screen driver from Texas Instruments. Other suppliers for touch screen controllers not specific to the iPad include Synaptics, Cypress Semiconductor, and Atmel.

Interestingly, the fact that three separate ICs are used to support the touch screen display indicates that the design is in its early stages, and suggests that future integration into a single device is possible and desirable. Future versions of the iPad are likely to use a single-chip solution for supporting the touch screen functionality, creating opportunities for suppliers that can offer such products.

“The iPad brings a new competitive dynamic that focuses on which companies will supply and control the value of the UI—and which firms will become commoditized in the relentless push to drive down prices,” Lidow said. “Display companies could shift their R&D priorities to develop touch and UI intelligence into their products, grabbing value from other UI components and protecting them from being commoditized. Intellectual-Property-savvy semiconductor suppliers could do the same.  During the next five years this will become one of the most important battlegrounds in the electronics value chain.”

Battery charge

While the battery is not usually considered part of the UI, in the iPad it plays a critical role in supporting the user experience. With the iPad heavily focused on mobility, a long battery life is critical, as iPhone users know.

“The weakest link in the iPhone is the battery life,” said Andrew Rassweiler, director and principal analyst, teardown services manager, for iSuppli. “With the iPad, Apple has rethought design priorities to ensure long battery life and serviceability. The bulk of the iPad is designed to accommodate the battery pack, which was also designed to be easily removed and replaced, although not by consumers.”

The thickness of the iPad is largely determined by the size of the display module and battery packs combined, Rassweiler noted. The battery, priced at $23.75, represents more than 9 percent of the iPad’s total bill-of-materials cost. In the iPad torn down by iSuppli, the battery cells were supplied by Amperex Technology and the pack provided by Dynapack.iSuppli expects other suppliers of tablet-type products to emulate the iPad’s battery-centric approach.

Processor concerns

In the UI-focused, content-consumption-oriented iPad, the microprocessor plays a lesser role than it does in conventional notebook PCs. However, the iPad’s design demands a highly integrated microprocessor that emphasizes lower power consumption and small space usage.

The microprocessor, combining an A4 processor core and a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), was designed by P.A. Semi—which was acquired by Apple in 2008—and carries an estimated cost of $19.50.

“The processor in the iPad is not a PC microprocessor,” Rassweiler said. “This is, as we understand it, an ARM-core based processor that is different from—and not trying to compete with—for example, Intel’s Atom microprocessor. This is a totally different architecture that comes as more of an extension of the iPhone/iPod line, rather than as an extension of Apple’s computer line-up, which is entirely Intel-based at this point.”

While the A4 lacks a custom development tailor-designed by, and made only for, Apple, it provides a much smaller physical footprint than Atom architecture does.

Know-how in integrated silicon for mobile platforms is now in hot demand because of the iPad’s design and may be behind several developments in the news lately.

These developments include Google’s recent announcement of its acquisition of Agnilux, a start-up founded by P.A. Semi professionals who left when that fabless chip designer was acquired by Apple in 2008. Agnilux Intellectual Property (IP) could find its way into a pending Google tablet PC. Apple this week also reportedly purchased Intrinsity, a privately owned ARM chip design firm.

Some competitors of the iPad are likely to also adopt ARM-Core based designs, such as the TEGRA chip line by Nvidia, or the OMAP processors by TI.

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Cell Phone Industry Declares End of Recession - data

Smartphones to grow 35% in 2010, ZTE and Huawei driving global growth


The cell phone industry is proclaiming the end of the recession for the segment following an outstanding final quarter of 2009 and a projected substantial growth for smart phones in 2010, according to market researchers iSuppli.

Mobile phone makers ended 2009 with shipments of 1.15 billion units and while that number is down from the overall 2008 figure of 1.2 billion handsets, shipments in the fourth quarter of 2009 represented the culmination of an increasing growth pattern throughout all of last year. Compared to third-quarter shipments of 290 million, about 335 million mobile handsets shipped in the fourth quarter, up 15.5 percent.
“Given the recovery of the market in the final quarter of 2009, and with Europe, Latin America and the Middle East/Africa regions doing exceptionally well during the period, the recession can be said to be officially over for the cell phone industry,” said Tina Teng, senior analyst for wireless systems at iSuppli. “The continued growth this year of total handsets—up a projected 11.3 percent to 1.3 billion units—further bolsters such a view.”
Among the various handset categories, smart phones—defined as handsets with a high-level operating system—are projected to expand 35.5 percent in 2010. Smart phone growth will be driven by a number of promising developments, including the introduction of entry-level smart phones, enthusiasm from vendors across the mobile phone and PC industries, the prevalence of 3G network deployments and the promotion of data-centric services in mature markets.
With handset shipments in the fourth quarter of 2009 amounting to approximately 257.6 million units, the Top 5 players accounted for a whopping 77 percent share of the total handset market.

Market rankings:

1. Nokia 37.9% market share (126.9m handsets)
2. Samsung Electronics 20.6%
3. LG Electronics 10.1%
4. Sony Ericsson 4.4%
5. ZTE 4.0% (up 77% in Q4 2009)

A second Chinese handset manufacturer, Huawei Technologies, landed in seventh place after also finishing an outstanding quarter with 82.4 percent growth. Together, the two Chinese companies indicate the strong momentum occurring in the emerging market as well as an increasing presence in Europe on their part with key operators.

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