2bn Mobile Devices with Integrated Baseband Modems by 2014

In-Stat says transition to 4G and LTE has already begun

The road to advance 4G wireless technologies is challenged by a multiple of wireless standards, limited availability of spectrum, constricting business models, as well as a host of other market and industry issues.  In-Stat (www.in-stat.com) reports that the new generation of data-centric mobile devices, such as smartphones, netbooks, and tablets, are already straining existing 3G networks, and despite these market and technical hurdles baseband modem integration into mobile devices will reach 2 billion by 2014.  In-Stat also projects the following:

• The transition to 4G communication standards has begun, albeit slowly, with 3.6% of mobile devices with baseband connectivity expected to be using 4G standards in 2014.  
• Despite the early lead of WiMAX, LTE is expected to account for over 60% of 4G-enabled mobile devices in 2014.
• E-Reader
• Integration of baseband solutions is expected to increase, resulting in an 11.0% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of broadband-enabled mobile devices.
• Smartphones and computing devices are the only devices expected to transition to 4G technologies over the next five years.  Handsets and mobile CE devices will remain on 2G/3G networks because of lower performance, cost, and power requirements.
  

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Huawei Dominates as Cellular and Mobile Broadband PC Modem Market Booms

Market Grew More than 55% in 2009, Huawei dominates
Cellular and mobile broadband PC modem shipments grew more than 55% in 2009. In 2008, a total of 46.4 million such modems (including USB models, PC Card modems, and wireless routers) shipped; in 2009, that figure grew to more than 72 million, according to the latest market data released by ABI Research.
“The USB modem continues to flourish,” says senior analyst Jeff Orr. “They remain amazingly popular. 2009 was actually a good year considering we were in a recession: there was somewhat surprising year-over-year growth in both shipments and revenue. And at the end of 2009 there was a surge of consumer adoption. Business adoption was less robust.”

USB modems’ popularity can be attributed to their low cost, flexibility and portability, as well as to subsidies frequently offered by network operators.
“Huawei is the market leader by a significant margin,” said Orr. “In 2009 Huawei extended its market share of all PC modems and routers to almost 50%, and it supplied 54.3% of all USB modems.”
Of the two minority modem formats, the PC Card and the router, PC cards continue to decline in favor of USB. ABI Research expects that except for a few specialized vertical markets they will largely disappear by 2013.
While the category of routers that connect Wi-Fi devices to a cellular or mobile broadband connection was reinvigorated last year with the introduction of Novatel’s MiFi product (and similar devices from Huawei and others), the case for a “personal hot-spot” is still unclear: many people own several Wi-Fi-enabled devices, but they rarely want to use them all simultaneously, away from home. Nor do many consumers seem to want to add another subscription for the sake of that ability.
“When will the shipment of embedded modems surpass the shipment of USB models?” Orr asks. “The recession has lengthened the equipment replacement cycle: we now believe that won’t happen before 2016.”

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