70% of all Mobile Devices to be Baseband Modem-Enabled by 2014, says In-Stat

Transistion to 4G is slow as 3G dominates connections

By Nick Flaherty www.flaherty.co.uk

The transition to 4G communication standards has begun, but the transition will be slow, says In-Stat. One indication of the sluggish pace: While 70% of mobile devices will be baseband-enabled by 2014, only 3.6% of mobile devices with baseband connectivity will be using 4G standards.  This is the case even though existing 3G networks are being stressed by data traffic that is increasing at exponential levels. 
However, this is the natural trend of adoption of new technology - 4G will not take the load off 3G for some time to come, particularly as it will take longer for terminal makers to add 4G rather than 3G. This is clear from the conservative takeup of 3G, and until the 4G networrks are well established there will continue to be the pressure on 3G. This increased connectivity of billions of devices will continue to drive new apps and new business models, and so is critical to track. 

 

“Computing and mobile consumer electronics (CE) manufacturers are integrating baseband modems into their devices at a feverish pace over the next few years,” says Jim McGregor, In-Stat analyst. “Unfortunately, the transition to 4G wireless technologies is not going to keep pace as adoption is challenged by multiple wireless standards, limited spectrum availability, constricting business models, and other market and industry issues.”

 

Recent research by In-Stat found the following:

• About 2 billion mobile devices out of a total of 2.8 billion will ship with baseband modem technology in 2014.
• Despite the early lead of WiMAX, LTE is expected to account for 61.2% of 4G-enabled mobile devices in 2014.
• Smartphones and computing devices are the only devices expected to transition to 4G technologies over the next five years. Feature-phones and mobile CE devices will remain on 2G/3G networks because of lower performance, cost, and power requirements.

Related articles

• Over 2 billion baseband cellular devices to ship in 2014 (news.cnet.com)
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Is it worth launching a Mini Smartphone?

Data casts doubt on mini strategy

Some very interesting data has been thrown up by grey market pricing group phoneLot.com. It points to the surge by manufacturers to replicate their flagship smartphones in a Mini version, but is this going to grab market share from competitors or simply half the demand for the original phone? Sony Ericsson have been the latest manufacturer to follow the Nokia N97 mini and the HTC HD mini, by launching their X10 mini. But have they done their homework? Possibly not according to Dan Quinn, Project Manager. “Had Sony Ericsson reviewed gsmExchange’s Price Watch, they would have seen that since its launch, the Nokia N97 mini’s price has nosedived, shedding €70 off the average wholesale price since November 2009, ” he said. While the N97 also decreased in value, the fall has been less severe, limiting to an average wholesale price of €318 from €350 since November 2009.
Quinn described the situation as difficult, pointing out that demand for the N97 mini has consistently been running at 50% of supply on the grey market, even during the run up to the holiday season in December which is traditionally a time of short stock. When compared to the N97, which demand outstripped supply by nearly 25% in the same period. Overall, it is questionable whether this could be considered a success and if these actual statistics were common knowledge, would it have altered Sony Ericsson’s strategy. Since the turn of the year, demand for both Nokia models continues to fall, in April 2010, demand stood at just under 33% of available stock on phoneLot.com for the N97 and about 65% of supply for the N97 Mini although the quantities being traded is considerably less for the mini model.


phoneLot.com is the fastest growing online trading platform for wireless retailers and wholesalers. It is dedicated to offering a purchasing solution to businesses looking to buy between 5 – 200 phones per order. Launched in February 2010, phonelot.com has over 4,000 members using the platform as their primary source for mobile phones and accessories. gsmExchange.com is the world’s leading wholesale trading platform for the mobile phone and accessories industry. Established in 1999, gsmExchange enjoys the status of world No.1 in this niche. There are over 40,000 members on the gsmExchange network and the platform is visited by thousands everyday looking for new customers or suppliers across the world.

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2bn Mobile Devices with Integrated Baseband Modems by 2014

In-Stat says transition to 4G and LTE has already begun

The road to advance 4G wireless technologies is challenged by a multiple of wireless standards, limited availability of spectrum, constricting business models, as well as a host of other market and industry issues.  In-Stat (www.in-stat.com) reports that the new generation of data-centric mobile devices, such as smartphones, netbooks, and tablets, are already straining existing 3G networks, and despite these market and technical hurdles baseband modem integration into mobile devices will reach 2 billion by 2014.  In-Stat also projects the following:

• The transition to 4G communication standards has begun, albeit slowly, with 3.6% of mobile devices with baseband connectivity expected to be using 4G standards in 2014.  
• Despite the early lead of WiMAX, LTE is expected to account for over 60% of 4G-enabled mobile devices in 2014.
• E-Reader
• Integration of baseband solutions is expected to increase, resulting in an 11.0% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of broadband-enabled mobile devices.
• Smartphones and computing devices are the only devices expected to transition to 4G technologies over the next five years.  Handsets and mobile CE devices will remain on 2G/3G networks because of lower performance, cost, and power requirements.
  

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Intel tries yet again with Atom for smartphones

Lower Power for Z6xx platform for Smartphones and Tablets

Intel has tackled one of its key problems - standby power - with a new family of 45nm Atom processors targetted at smartphones and tablet PCs. The company claims a 50x reduction in static power to 100microWatts.
  The newest Intel Atom processor-based platform, formerly "Moorestown", has been repartitioned to include the Z6xx, which combines the 45nm Intel Atom processor core with 3-D graphics, video encode and decode, as well as memory and display controllers into a single SoC design. It also includes the MP20 Platform Controller Hub which supports a range of system-level functions and I/O blocks. Additionally, a dedicated MSIC integrates power delivery and battery charging, and consolidates a range of analog and digital components. Alongside the Z6xx Series Family (formerly "Lincroft" system-on-chip [SoC]) is the Intel Platform Controller Hub MP20 (formerly "Langwell") and a dedicated Mixed Signal IC (MSIC), formerly "Briertown."
The new platform supports a range of scalable frequencies, up to 1.5 GHz for high-end smartphones and up to 1.9 GHz for tablets and other handheld designs. The chips also bring support for Wi-Fi, 3G/HSPA, and WiMAX, as well as a range of operation systems, including Android, Meego and Moblin. Intel is bringing together a breadth of applications and ecosystem support across these platforms
"Intel has delivered its first product that is opening the door for Intel Architecture [IA] in the smartphone market segment," said Anand Chandrasekher, Intel senior vice president and general manager of the Ultra Mobility Group. "Through "Moorestown," Intel is scaling the benefits of IA while significantly reducing the power, cost and footprint to better address handheld market segments. As a result of our efforts, the Intel Atom processor is pushing the boundaries of higher performance at significantly lower power to show what's possible as handheld devices become small, powerful mobile computers."
Building on the C6 state in the original Intel Atom processor design, the SoC incorporates new ultra-low-power states (SoI), which take the SoC to 100 micro-watts. At the platform level, Intel implemented a new, fine grain OS power management approach that manages the idle and active power states across all aspects of the system based on usage scenarios. This software-managed technique applies aggressive power and clock gating across the SoC's power islands and system voltage rails. Additionally, Intel used a new high-K 45nm LP SoC process to support a multiple transistor design with a range of high-voltage I/Os.
These power management capabilities, when combined with Burst Performance Technology for high-performance on demand, and the Bus Turbo Mode for high-bandwidth on demand, help to deliver industry leading performance and power efficiency across a range of handheld devices, says the company.
"After we delivered the first-generation Intel Atom processor with 10x thermal power reduction, we challenged ourselves to achieve 50x power reduction at the platform level," said Belli Kuttanna, chief Intel Atom processor architect. "We are delighted to have exceeded this goal while increasing performance and are proud of the architects and designers who consistently reinvent the possibilities of Intel Architecture."

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Qualcomm and HP show first Snapdragon Smartbook with Android

Qualcomm is working with Hewlett Packard to design an Android-based smartbook device using the 1GHz Snapdragon QSD8250 chipset platform with integrated Scorpion central processing unit.
HP will provide a technology demonstration of the device at the Pepcom Digital Experience and ShowStoppers events taking place during the International Consumer Electronics Show 2010 in Las Vegas.

"Qualcomm's Snapdragon platform delivers significant competitive advantages to our customers, enabling them to feature exceptional performance, ubiquitous connectivity and powerful multimedia in devices ranging from mobile handsets to smartbooks," said Luis Pineda, senior vice president of product management for Qualcomm CDMA Technologies. "Working together with partners such as HP, we will be able to bring a more valuable connected experience to consumers around the world."

"HP has a long history of providing consumers with an exceptional level of computing," said Steve Manser, senior vice president in the Personal Systems Group at HP. "By leveraging the unique features of Qualcomm's Snapdragon chipset and the Android operating system, HP is showcasing an entirely new type of mobile device designed specifically for consumers who live a large part of their lives online."

  The Snapdragon platform is enabling smarter smartphones, as well as a new class of devices called smartbooks. Smartbooks last all day on a single battery charge and offer the best aspects of a smartphone experience -- constant connectivity, instant-on functionality and customizable interfaces -- all in a device with a larger display form factor.