By Nick Flaherty www.flaherty.co.uk
The transition to 4G communication standards has begun, but the transition will be slow, says In-Stat. One indication of the sluggish pace: While 70% of mobile devices will be baseband-enabled by 2014, only 3.6% of mobile devices with baseband connectivity will be using 4G standards. This is the case even though existing 3G networks are being stressed by data traffic that is increasing at exponential levels.
However, this is the natural trend of adoption of new technology - 4G will not take the load off 3G for some time to come, particularly as it will take longer for terminal makers to add 4G rather than 3G. This is clear from the conservative takeup of 3G, and until the 4G networrks are well established there will continue to be the pressure on 3G. This increased connectivity of billions of devices will continue to drive new apps and new business models, and so is critical to track.
“Computing and mobile consumer electronics (CE) manufacturers are integrating baseband modems into their devices at a feverish pace over the next few years,” says Jim McGregor, In-Stat analyst. “Unfortunately, the transition to 4G wireless technologies is not going to keep pace as adoption is challenged by multiple wireless standards, limited spectrum availability, constricting business models, and other market and industry issues.”
Recent research by In-Stat found the following:
- About 2 billion mobile devices out of a total of 2.8 billion will ship with baseband modem technology in 2014.
- Despite the early lead of WiMAX, LTE is expected to account for 61.2% of 4G-enabled mobile devices in 2014.
- Smartphones and computing devices are the only devices expected to transition to 4G technologies over the next five years. Feature-phones and mobile CE devices will remain on 2G/3G networks because of lower performance, cost, and power requirements.
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