One of the most critical factors for the deployment of LTE is spectrum availability. LTE offers the advantage of spectrum and channel size flexibility. Operators can choose to deploy LTE using digital dividend spectrum (450MHz and 700MHz), 2G spectrum (800MHz and 900MHz), 3G spectrum (1.7GHz, 1.8GHz, 1.9-2.1GHz) or the 2.6GHz band (and in the case of Japanese operators the 1.5GHz band is also available).
The Top 25 LTE Operator Commitments Report from analysts Maravedis addresses this and many other factors integral to successful LTE deployments. The majority of the operators own spectrum assets in the 2G and 3G frequency bands and the most common frequency band used for 3G deployment is the 1.9-2.1GHz band. Although the 1.9-2.1GHz band can be used for LTE, most operators will be unable to use this spectrum to support new 4G services given that it is entirely occupied by their current 3G services. Most operators will need to either acquire additional 3G or 2.6GHz spectrum for their 4G deployment.
Maravedis believes that in North America, most LTE deployments will occur in the 700MHz and AWS spectrum (1710-1755 and 2110-2155 MHz). The major mobile operator is Verizon Wireless, who has depths of 22MHz up to 46MHz of 700MHz in major markets across the United States, plus up to 46MHz of the AWS spectrum. Verizon is followed by AT&T, which in the top 100 wireless markets has average spectrum depths of 58-77 MHz of AWS spectrum and 12MHz of spectrum in more than 227 regions. AT&T plans to use their chunk of the 700 MHz spectrum to roll-out LTE and we believe that the carrier might use a chuck of its AWS spectrum as well. T-Mobile has 120 regional AWS spectrum licenses used for 3G deployments, with spectrum depths of up to 54MHz in major markets. AT&T does not yet have spectrum available for 4G, but there are speculations on possible partnerships with T-Mobile and cable operators for additional AWS spectrum, or even with Clearwire to gain access to 4G spectrum resources in the 2.6GHz band. One should not forget, however, that the carrier with the largest spectrum assets is Clearwire with up to 120MHz of spectrum in the 2.6GHz band across the top 100 US markets . Once Verizon Wireless, AT&T and T-Mobile launch their LTE networks, they will be competing against “CLEAR” Clearwire’s WiMAX 4G network. Although Clearwire is likely to continue deploying WiMAX for a while, they have stated several times that they could move to LTE at anytime if needed.
In Europe, most LTE deployments will take place in the 2.6GHz band; however this spectrum has yet to be allocated in most countries. Although a number of European operators have announced their commitment to LTE and even an expected launch date, the real deployment date will highly depend on the allocation of this spectrum. Auctions of the 2.6GHz band have taken place in Sweden, Norway and Finland. Countries with pending 3G and 2.6GHz auctions include UK, Italy, Spain, France and Germany. Other countries such as Austria are waiting for 2G spectrum refarming to be used for 3G services. Teliasonera Sweden, Teliasonera Norway, Tele2 and Telenor already own 40MHz of spectrum respectively in the 2.6GHz band.
In Asia Pacific, operators will be using a wide range of frequency bands for LTE deployments, including 800MHz, 900MHz, 1.5GHz, 1.7GHz, 1.8GHz, 2.1GHz and even 2.6GHz. Some operators are also waiting for spectrum auctions to continue their technology evolution roadmap. In countries such as Hong Kong and Australia, the 2.6GHz band will be the most preferred for LTE deployments, but there is also some room for deployments in the digital dividend band (700MHz) currently used for broadcasting services but that can be freed for mobile services in the future.
Maravedis believse that spectrum availability is a major hurdle operators are facing to continue their technology evolution roadmap. Spectrum allocation - more than any other factor - will dictate the deployment launch date of most LTE networks; this will be particularly true in Europe, Latin America and Asia Pacific, where spectrum auctions are underway.
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