The iPad has a 72 percent probability of taking longer than 74 days to reach 1m units, according to YouWager.com, which began taking bets on the topic this week. “No matter what they put out on the market, there’s going to be large sales, but with this particular product, we don’t think it’s as practical as the iPhone,” said Brian Sanz, who works on wagering, auditing and research development for San Jose, Costa Rica-based YouWager.com and quoted on Bloomberg.
However Paddy Power, Ireland’s biggest bookmaker, is offering 3-to-1 odds that over 6m iPads will sell this year, which seems optimistic, althoug it is also offering 8-to-1 odds that fewer than 1 million units will sell. Selling a million units in 74 days has emerged as an industry benchmark for consumer technology. Flurry Inc., a company that tracks smartphone use, estimated that Google’s Nexus One has sold about 135,000 units in its first 74 days, but like the iPhone, Motorola’s Droid phone managed to hit the 1 million mark in that amount of time.
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