iPhone shortage explained

Having spent several weeks trying to get an iPhone 3GS from O2 as an upgrade, I've discovered why, thanks to iSuppli.
China Unicom starts selling the iPhone in Q4, which means October. Which means they are ramping up now. Which means the majority of the production will be heading to China (with 21m units of smartphones shipped this year) rather than Europe.
That also explains why O2 is sanguine about the iPhone not being exclusive in the UK for much longer, as there won't be that many of them anyway for other operators. It also explains bringing on the Palm Pre (exclusively) in Q4.....

Here's what iSuppli is saying:
The arrival of Apple's’s iPhone in China is expected to help accelerate global shipment growth for smart phones in 2010 and 2011.
Although growth in the smart phone market is set to decelerate in 2009 compared to 2008, it still represents a rare bright spot for the troubled cell phone market. Global cell phone shipments are set to decline by 12.3 percent in 2009.

“China Unicom’s move to start selling iPhones in China starting in the fourth quarter will sound the starting gun for China’s smart phone market,” said Tina Teng, senior analyst for iSuppli. “The arrival of the iPhone has compelled China Unicom’s competitor China Mobile to introduce its own smart phone products and app store, helping to boost the market.”

Smart phone shipments in China in 2010 will rise by 42.5 percent to reach 30.2 million units, up from 21.2 million in 2009, the fastest growth rate of any country tracked by iSuppli.