Android OS smartphone sales to surpass OS X iPhone by 2012 says Informa

Market researchers Informa Telecoms & Media are predicting that sales of Android portable multimedia devices will outsell the Apple iPhone systems by 2012.

The researchers are also predicting a 10% fall in smartphone sales this year as the credit crunch bites, but sales will remain robust with 35.3% year on year growth and 13.5% penetration of all handsets. By 2013, that penetration will have trebled to just over 38%, driven by the open source move of the Symbian foundation.

I'm not so sure - the interface, usability and reliability of the iPhone will help keep sales up, and the success of the applications marketplace (coupled of course with iTunes) will make the iPhone harder to overtake.


“The smartphone segment is no longer as simple as it was a few years ago”, says Gavin Byrne, Research Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media. “Since early 2007 Symbian, Microsoft, Linux and BlackBerry OS have been joined by Apple’s OS X iPhone, Android and recently Palm’s Web OS”.
“In 2008, there were almost 162 million smartphones sold, surpassing notebook sales for the first time”, says Byrne. Just over 49% of smartphones sold in 2008 were based on Symbian OS, a significant drop from a near 65% share it enjoyed one year earlier. While this is in large part due to the relatively poor performance of Nokia’s smartphone range, it is also an indication of the popularity enjoyed by competing platforms including Linux, BlackBerry OS, Microsoft Windows Mobile, OS X iPhone and new entrant Android. This underlines the growing challenge that these platforms may present, in the mind of device vendors and operators.
Openness is a key criterion, while all in the mobile telecoms space now see the revenue potential of applications and services. Now more than ever, handset vendors must develop strategies to maximise these new revenue streams while reducing costs. Factors like these have led device vendors to alter their software platform strategies, like LG’s recent public declaration of its intention to launch 50 new mobile handsets using Microsoft Windows Mobile. In the past year Motorola, Sony Ericsson and HTC have also significantly modified their approach to the smartphone market. It has also become a growing focus for ODMs and for the operator focussed strategies of ZTE and Huawei.

Developers are key
As more and more value moves from device hardware to software, and also to content, developers are becoming increasingly central to the mobile handset value chain. Platform and applications development are in many cases already reaping the benefits of open source components and approaches, with LiMo Foundation, Android and the Symbian Foundation being the most significant device platforms in market. “The decision to move the Symbian platform to open source is crucial in maintaining its leadership over Android, Linux and Microsoft”, says Byrne. The growing importance of content development is reflected in the efforts that Apple, Google, Nokia, Microsoft, Qualcomm and Adobe have gone to facilitate development and a route to market, as represented by their application stores.
“In the wider handset market, Informa Telecoms & Media expects that the global recession will cause total new handset sales to fall by 10.1% in volume terms in 2009” adds Byrne. “However, its effect will not be felt equally across all segments. While demand in the mid tier will fall away during 2009, sales of new smartphones will grow over 30% to 211.2 million units, driven by innovative new devices and operator subsidies designed to promote mobile data consumption, so that by 2013 almost four in every ten handsets sold worldwide will be a smartphone. With impressive growth rates like this, the smartphone market has proved too attractive to companies in adjacent market segments, such as leading notebook vendor, Acer.”